Professional Services · Marketing Analytics

Measure true ROAS with marketing mix models and Google Meridian

Know what every marketing dollar returns, with models your own team runs.

We build marketing mix models (MMM) on your sales and media data — Google Meridian, Bayesian MMM, and regression with adstock and saturation — prove them with geo experiments and independent code, and deploy the best one in your own infrastructure. The models are SAS-language programs that run in Jenner, so your analysts, including a team that already does its marketing analytics in SAS, re-run and re-train them every quarter with no further services.

Fixed-price and time-and-materials engagements.

Marketing mix modeling course banner: ink illustration of a man in a suit seen from behind, sitting back in an armchair, under the title Retail Baselines and Marketing Mix Modelling in Jenner

§1 The offer

What our marketing mix modeling service includes

Media mix modeling done properly once, then handed over: your team owns the software, the trained models and the pipeline that runs them, with no ongoing service subscription.

A Jenner Ultimate license

The edition with 200+ procedures and no data limit, on macOS, Windows or Linux. It runs SAS-language programs, including the models we deliver. One year of new releases and support is included.

  • Every procedure the models use, and every one your analysts reach for next
  • Runs on your machines and servers; your data stays with you
  • One year of updates and support from the team that builds Jenner

Trained marketing mix models

A set of models fitted to your own sales, media, price and promotion data, with the budget recommendation they support. Your team re-runs them on new weeks and re-trains them as the market moves, without calling us.

  • Response curves, ROI and marginal ROI for every channel
  • Re-run each week or quarter; re-train when the mix changes
  • Executed notebooks that explain every step in plain words

Integration and deployment

We connect the models to the data you already have and run them where you already run things: your cloud or your own servers, on your scheduler, with results delivered to your BI and planning tools.

  • Feeds from your warehouse, data lake or flat files
  • Scheduled runs on your cloud or on premises
  • Results as tables that Python, R and your BI tools read directly

§2 How it starts

How we work: start with an engineering review

We look at your data and your infrastructure first, so the estimate is a number we can stand behind.

  1. 01 /

    Engineering review

    A working session with your marketing, analytics and data teams: what you sell, which channels you buy, what data you hold and where it lives.

  2. 02 /

    Estimate and plan

    A written scope, timeline and price for the models, the integration and the hand-over, as a fixed price or as time and materials.

  3. 03 /

    Build, train and prove

    We prepare the data, fit the models, check them against independent code and your experiments, and agree the results with your team.

  4. 04 /

    Deploy and hand over

    The models go live in your infrastructure, your analysts run them with us once, and from then on they run them on their own.

Engagement models: fixed price or time and materials

Fixed price

One price for an agreed scope. The right choice when the data is in good shape and the deliverables are clear.

A fixed-price engagement →

§3 What you get to see

ROAS and marginal ROAS your planners can use

Four figures from our marketing mix modelling course, made with the same models we build for clients.

FIG. 1 — Response curves by channel

Marketing mix model response curves, the basis of marginal ROAS by channel: the effect on log sales of TV, video, search and social against steady weekly input. Social saturates quickly; TV, video and search rise and level off.

How much each channel adds as you spend more, and where it stops paying.

Source: invented data for illustration

FIG. 2 — What moves revenue

Bar chart titled What moves revenue, MMM 1, dishwasher pods: revenue change for a 1% rise in each factor, with a line for the cumulative share. Distribution raises revenue most; competitor price and price lower it; online video, TV, display and paid search follow with much smaller effects.

Every factor ranked by how much a 1% change moves revenue, media and non-media alike.

Source: invented data for illustration

FIG. 3 — A geo test, read correctly

Bar chart titled TV test, the loss builds up during the pause and runs on after it: true revenue lost per week, rising through eight test weeks with TV off, then falling away over the weeks after TV comes back on.

Switch TV off in a few markets and the lost sales show up, then run on after it comes back. We measure both.

Source: invented data for illustration

FIG. 4 — Market by market

Dot chart titled MMM 3 media coefficients by market, dishwasher pods: the TV coefficient is the same in every market; video's vary around a higher average; social's sit around zero and search's around a small average.

Which channels work the same everywhere and can be planned nationally, and which vary by market.

Source: invented data for illustration

Tell us what you sell and how you buy media

The engineering review takes one conversation. You leave with a scope and a price.

§4 What we build

The marketing mix models we build

We fit several model families — including Google Meridian — on your data, test each one the same way, and deploy the one that performs best.

M1

Regression with adstock (carry-over)

Log-linear regression with adstock, so a TV flight keeps working in the weeks after it airs, and autoregressive errors, so a run of good weeks is not mistaken for media.

M2

Adstock and saturation curves

Hill saturation curves fitted channel by channel on top of adstock: diminishing returns, and the response curve that tells you where the next dollar does the most.

M3

Hierarchical multi-market models

Markets borrow strength from each other, with a media effect for every market, so you see where a channel works harder and where it can be planned nationally.

M4

Bayesian MMM calibrated by geo experiments

Geo-test results enter the model as priors, so the history and the experiments agree on one answer, with an interval for every number.

M5

Incrementality testing with geo experiments

Test design and analysis: difference in differences, synthetic control and placebo checks on fake tests, so a measured lift comes with an honest margin of error.

M6

Search mediation

How much of TV's and video's effect arrives through people searching for you, so search is not credited with sales the other channels created.

M7

Google Meridian (open-source Bayesian MMM), run and deployed from Jenner

Google Meridian implementation without a separate stack: Google's open-source Bayesian MMM runs from inside Jenner and is tested on the same footing as the others — the same holdout weeks, the same experiment calibration, the same budget optimizer. When it fits your data best, we deploy it into your infrastructure like any other.

And the analyses every plan needs

  • Baselines and promotion lift

    What you would have sold anyway, and how much each promotion added on top.

  • ROAS and marginal ROAS

    What each channel returned on average, and what the next dollar would return.

  • Response curves

    Spend against return for every channel, with the point where it saturates.

  • Budget optimization

    The best split of the same budget, within the limits your planners set for each channel.

  • What moves revenue

    Price, distribution, competitors, weather and media, ranked by how much each one moves the result.

§5 Google Meridian

Google Meridian, implemented and deployed

Google Meridian is Google's open-source Bayesian marketing mix model. We run it from inside Jenner, calibrate it with your geo experiments, and test it on the same holdout weeks and the same budget optimizer as every other model we fit.

When Meridian is the best model for your data, we deploy it into your infrastructure on the same schedule and with the same hand-over as any other: your analysts re-run it and re-train it themselves.

§6 Why you can defend it

ROAS you can defend

Before a ROAS figure reaches your planners, it has been checked three ways.

Cross-checked in Python and R

Every model is fitted again with independent Python and R implementations, and the coefficients have to agree.

Recovery-tested on simulated data

We run each model on simulated data where the true answer is known, and show it finds that answer before it touches yours.

Calibrated against experiments

Where you have geo tests, the models are calibrated with them; where you do not, we design the test that settles the question.

§7 What we hand over

Everything your analysts need to carry on

  1. 01

    Executed notebooks

    Jupyter notebooks your analysts can read top to bottom and run again, each step explained in plain words.

  2. 02

    Documented code

    Every program behind the models, commented and organized so your team can change it.

  3. 03

    The trained models

    Fitted to your data, with the settings and checks to re-train them on new weeks.

  4. 04

    A budget recommendation

    Where to move the money next, by channel, with the expected return.

  5. 05

    Video walkthrough (optional)

    A recorded tour of the models and notebooks for everyone who joins the team later.

Frequently Asked Questions

The marketing mix model separates the revenue each channel generated from price, promotions, distribution, seasonality and the other channels; dividing that revenue by the channel's spend gives its ROAS. Where you have geo experiments, they calibrate the model, so the figure rests on measured lift and not on correlation alone. The engineering review shows what your data can support.

Average ROAS is what a channel returned on everything you spent; marginal ROAS is what the next dollar would return, read off the channel's response curve. Channels saturate, so a channel with a high average ROAS can have a low marginal one, and moving budget on average ROAS sends money to the wrong place. Our budget recommendations are built on marginal ROAS.

Incremental ROAS is the revenue a channel causes, measured by switching it off or down in a set of holdout markets and comparing them with control markets. A test measures only its own weeks, so for channels whose effect carries over, such as TV, a short test understates the full return; we account for that carry-over when we use the result. We can design your next test as part of the engagement.

Google Meridian is an open-source Bayesian marketing mix modeling framework from Google. It estimates each channel's effect with adstock and saturation, can be calibrated with experiment results, and comes with a budget optimizer. We implement it as one of the models we fit for you.

Yes. We run Meridian from inside Jenner, calibrate it with your experiments, and deploy it into your environment on your schedule. After the hand-over your team re-runs and re-trains it themselves.

Yes. Experiment results enter Meridian as ROI priors for the channels they tested. If you have no tests yet, we design and analyse the geo experiments as part of the engagement.

We fit several model families on the same data and test each one the same way: accuracy on held-out weeks, agreement with your experiments, and recovery tests on simulated data where the true answer is known. We deploy the one that performs best on your data, whichever it is. We implement Google Meridian; we do not offer Robyn.

Jenner runs SAS programs — DATA steps, procedures and macros — so your existing SAS code can keep running beside the new models. The models we deliver are themselves SAS-language programs in Jupyter notebooks that your team reads, re-runs and changes in Jenner. The engineering review checks your programs against what Jenner supports.

You own them. Your team re-runs and re-trains the models on your own Jenner license, with no ongoing service fee. You call us when you want more work done, not because the models need us.

Either. After the engineering review we give you a written estimate, as a fixed price for an agreed scope or as time and materials; how long the engagement takes is estimated in the same review. The Jenner Ultimate license is priced as on our pricing page.

Ready to know what your media returns?

Start with an engineering review. We look at your data and your systems, and come back with a scope and a price.

Request an engineering reviewSee Jenner pricing →

Fixed-price and time-and-materials engagements.

Request an engineering review

Tell us what you sell, which channels you buy, what data you hold and where it lives. We will come back to arrange the review.